Wayne, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

651
FXUS61 KOKX 242345
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
745 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Tranquil weather with dry conditions, slightly below normal
temperatures and comfortable humidity thru the weekend.

2) A slow moving frontal system may bring an extended period of
unsettled weather late Monday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Mean troughing will exist over the NE US this weekend, deepening
down the East coast east next week. At the surface, Canadian
Maritime high pressure remains in control through the weekend.

This will maintain dry conditions, with slightly below normal
temperatures (as much as 5 degrees below normal) and
comfortable humidity levels. High temperatures will remain in
the upper 70s to mid 80s, and low temperatures in the upper 50s
across the interior and the Long Island pine barrens, and 60s
for city/coast.

With the weak pressure gradient, E-NE winds will remain fairly
light giving way to afternoon coastal sea breezes.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Models in general agreement with an Eastern US trough amplifying
down the US East Coast (-2 std 500 hPa height across Mid-
Atlantic) through the early to mid week as a series of weak
shortwaves rotate down the western side of Western US ridging,
with potential closed upper low developing over the NE US
midweek.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front approaches late Monday
into Tuesday, gradually crossing Wednesday, before exiting
Thursday. Scattered late day shower/thunderstorm potential west
of the Hudson R. Greatest potential for shower and embedded
thunderstorms activity appears to be during Tuesday-Thursday
time frame with potential low pressure development along the
front. Low pressure will likely only affect the region for 12-24
hrs, but model spread exists on exact timing of closed low and
surface low withing the Tue-Thu timeframe. Even if surface low
pressure clears on Tuesday, could have lingering aft/eve
instability shra/tsra on Wed and Thu.

Inherently low predictability on details this far out, but the
slow movement of this system, shortwave forcing, and
moistening environment poses a low flash flood threat at this
time. Astronomical tides will be rising thru this period as
well. The anomalous upper low/cold pool does bring potential for
diurnally enhanced convection, but severe thunderstorm
potential would be predicated on development/track of surface
low pressure and extent of diurnal heating and instability
development. More details as the weekend progresses.

Gradually improving conditions likely for late week, but mean
troughing likely remains.

Near seasonable temps likely during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR with high pressure in control.

SE-S winds less than 10 kt should become light NE overnight,
then become SE around 10 kt in the afternoon. Speeds could be
just over 10 kt at KJFK/KISP and possibly KGON in the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night and Sunday: VFR.

Monday: MVFR possible in the afternoon and evening. Chance of
showers and possibly a tstm from the NYC metros north/west.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower conditions possible. Showers likely and
chance of tstms especially in the afternoon and evening. S
winds G15-20kt.

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR with showers and possibly a tstm.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure over the waters and remaining nearby into
the weekend, a prolonged stretch of sub advisory conditions
expected through the weekend and to begin next week. That said,
persistent E flow 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this weekend will
likely have seas building to around 4ft, possibly touching 5
ft.

Thereafter, SCA conditions may return to the ocean waters and
possibly to all waters Tue-Wed, but will be dependent on timing
of a frontal system and possible low development.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk within an E to W longshore current
regime is expected through the weekend, with a 1-2 ft SE wind
wave/swell, and gradually building 3-4 E wind wave/swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...NV